Prospectiva de los requerimientos de calidad e inocuidad para los alimentos argentinos en sus mercados de exportación: modelización mediante cadenas de Markov

Abstract

This article analyses the likely evolution of quality and food safety requirements affecting Argentine food exports to major international markets during the 2025-2035 period. The research combined documentary review, in-depth interviews, Delphi-type expert consultation and Markov chain modelling. Three states of requirement evolution were defined: predominance of public food safety regulations, centrality of private food safety standards, and consolidation of sustainability-oriented differentiation systems. Results show a general shift from requirements focused exclusively on food safety toward more complex frameworks in which traceability, documentary compliance, sustainability and organizational capabilities become increasingly relevant. However, the intensity of this transition varies across markets. The European Union and Japan display trajectories strongly oriented toward differentiation systems, while Mercosur and Asia-Pacific show more gradual transitions. The article concludes that the future competitiveness of the Argentine agrifood sector will depend, to a significant extent, on its ability to anticipate differentiated regulatory trajectories and sustain strategic adaptation processes.